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The Win Rate Myth

Should the success of sports prediction services be measured in “win rate” or profit? Can you go to the store and pay with a high “win rate”, or would you rather prefer the money?

In the end, long-term revenue is the only measure of quality in a sports prediction service. Win rate is one of the most irrelevant statistics in sports investing, frequently utilized by handicappers as a trap to lure brand-new accounts.

As you understand, many professional handicappers offer high win rates of approximately 99%, drawing beginner wagerers into their fraud. 99% accuracy for sports picks is a misconception, while precision rates of 53-60% are thinking about to be elite amongst professional handicappers. A high win rate does not guarantee a profit but seems important to the untrained eye.

Let’s take hypothetical scenarios for Bettor A and Bettor B as examples

Bettor A makes relatively winners on strong favourites with chances like 1.35 (-300 ). After 10 bets Bettor A has won 7 wagers and lost only three. The outcome is an outstanding 70% win rate, which gets marketed as a triumphant success by his handicapping service.

A closer look, nevertheless, reveals that Bettor A’s method is deeply flawed.

Using one-unit wagers, Bettor A made (1.35×7)-7 = $2.45 on seven winning wagers

With the very same one-unit bets, Bettor A lost 1 x 3 = $3 on 3 losing wagers.

The total is a net loss of $0.55 units for every 10 wagers made in this system.

Despite a gaudy 70% win rate, Bettor A really loses more than half a unit for every single 10 bets.

Bettor B makes riskier bets on underdog lines with greater worth. Though Bettor B acknowledges that a 70% win rate is not likely on chances like 2.10 (+110 ), there is long-term value to this strategy. Bettor B made 10 bets and won only five, losing the other 5 wagers. The result is a meagre 50% win rate, which at first glance appears inferior to the technique of Bettor A. A deeper look exposes Bettor B’s technique is really rather remarkable.

Using the same one-unit wagers, Bettor B made (5X2.1)-5 = $5.50 on five winning wagers.

With one-unit bets, Bettor B lost 1 x 5 = $5 on five losing wagers. With just a 50% winning rate

Bettor B made earnings of $0.50 units for every ten bets.

A high win rate does not guarantee profits. The only appropriate gauge of the success of a sports investor should be longterm earnings and bankroll growth. Successful system betting techniques can turn a revenue with win rates as low as 37%.

Alternatively, sports investors can win the huge majority of picks and still lose money. The only long-term measurement for success is earnings, especially when loan management concepts are correctly used to a winning system. Do not be deceived by services including a high win rate! Profit is all that matters!

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